This remains stable for the time being. The price is improving because availability is currently high. However, the point is rapidly approaching where the agricultural supply chain may become uneasy about this. The trend could soon be reversed, with an interruption of supply and a switching of the fields to other products.
2017-18 Chinese paprika season has finished. As expected, the Chinese paprika chilli production is 40% higher than in the previous season. This 40% will makeup for the shortfall in Indian paprika, which is expected to a 40% lower yield. The season in India begins in December.
The 2018-19 harvest season has just begun. Expectations regarding the yield are still very speculative. Production has remained reasonably stable in recent years at around 400m tonnes per year, making it possible to form an even picture.
Supply is currently stable because we are in between two harvest seasons. The Central American harvest has ended and now we await the next Brazilian crops, which are projected to keep availability good. In the long term, this could lead to a drop in price in the next Peruvian harvest from August/September.